For most of the post-2011 gold bear market, Wall Street's major banks maintained cautious or outright bearish views on gold. That consensus has shifted dramatically. By the time gold broke above $2,500 per ounce in 2024, virtually every major sell-side commodity desk had issued bullish 12-month forecasts. Understanding why Wall Street — not typically known for enthusiasm about non-yielding assets — has become so constructive on gold reveals important structural dynamics in the market.
Goldman Sachs: The Most Bullish Major Bank
Goldman Sachs has been the most consistently bullish major bank on gold. In early 2024, Goldman's commodity strategists raised their 12-month gold target to $2,700 — at the time, a contrarian call. By mid-2025, with gold already above that target, Goldman had moved its forecast to $3,000. Their core thesis rests on three pillars: (1) Fed rate cuts reducing real yields and the opportunity cost of holding gold; (2) structurally elevated central bank demand that did not exist in previous cycles; and (3) a long-term de-dollarization trend reducing demand for dollar-denominated reserve assets globally. Goldman has specifically noted that if trade tensions escalate further — generating renewed demand for assets outside the dollar system — gold could move well above their base case.
JPMorgan: Structural Demand Recognition
JPMorgan's commodity desk raised its gold forecast to $2,850 in 2025, citing the same structural demand drivers as Goldman but emphasizing the asymmetric risk profile. JPMorgan analysts noted that the risk-reward for gold appeared unusually attractive — the downside was limited by central bank demand providing a structural floor, while the upside was open-ended in scenarios involving renewed inflation, dollar weakness, or geopolitical escalation. This asymmetric framing — limited downside, unlimited upside — is unusual language from major bank research and reflects genuine conviction rather than a routine forecast update.
Citigroup: The $3,000 Scenario
Citigroup published a notable 2025 research note outlining a scenario in which gold could reach $3,000 per ounce within 12 months. Citi's base case was more moderate — approximately $2,900 — but they argued the $3,000 scenario was more likely than the market was pricing. Their key upside catalyst was a sharper-than-expected Fed easing cycle combined with a weakening dollar. Citi also highlighted what they called the "fear of sanctions" as a permanent structural change in central bank behavior: once a central bank has shifted reserves toward gold for geopolitical protection, it is unlikely to reverse that decision regardless of gold's short-term price performance.
Institutional Positioning Data
Beyond price targets, institutional positioning data tells its own story. COMEX Commitment of Traders reports showed managed money net long positions in gold futures remained elevated through 2025, suggesting hedge funds maintained significant gold exposure. Global gold ETF assets stabilized after years of outflows and began growing again in 2024. Family offices and endowments — which had reduced gold allocations after the 2011–2015 bear market — began restoring positions in 2023–2024 according to survey data from major custodians.
The Retail Investor Lag
Despite Wall Street's bullish posture, retail gold ETF and coin demand in the United States remained below 2020 peaks as of late 2025 — suggesting that much of the institutional repositioning has occurred without full retail participation. Historically, retail investors tend to follow institutional conviction with a lag of 12–24 months. If that pattern holds, the retail demand surge that typically marks the later stages of a gold bull market has yet to fully materialize. Speak with a specialist about positioning before that next leg begins.